Sleeper or Creeper: Players At Running Back Who Will Make A Difference

Chances are that in 2007, a fantasy team composed of Tom Brady, Adrian Peterson, Greg Jennings, Braylon Edwards, and Jason Witten led many owners to the championship. In the midst of all their glory, many owners forget that Greg Jennings was merely a second-year wide receiver out of Western Michigan looking to build on a mediocre rookie year. To the surprise of many, Greg Jennings finished the year tied for fourth among all wide receivers with 12 touchdown receptions, a number surpassed only by Randy Moss, Braylon Edwards, and Terrell Owens.

In sleeper or creeper, I will look at every position and determine the ideal candidates for a "sleeper" season and forewarn you about the players I feel will "creep" through the season. Like it or not, in the end it is your team so you make the call.

SLEEPERS

1. Thomas Jones, NYJ: The acquisition of LG Alan Faneca and FB Tony Richardson gives the New York Jets something to be optimistic about. Compiling 1,119 rushing yards and 217 receiving yards in 2007 behind a line that could make LT look average, Thomas Jones will be better in 2008. Following Richardson into the pile should result in an increase in touchdowns, fixing a problem he was all too familiar with in 2007.

2. Laurence Maroney, NE: What do you expect when the man under center is slinging an average of three touchdowns per game? I will tell you what to expect..... a decline in production from that player in the subsequent year. We saw the same thing with Peyton Manning the year after he broke the record. He went from throwing 49 touchdowns in 2004 to 28 touchdowns in 2005. Do not construe this as an attack on Tom Brady, but instead a recognition of the amount of respect defensive coordinators will give him in 2008. They will be unable to stack the box and constantly on their toes, providing large gaps in the defense which will allow Maroney to head for the promiseland. Throw in the weakest schedule for any team in the NFL during the 2008 season and Maroney owners will not feel the same remorse for drafting him in 2008 as they did in 2007.

3. Ryan Grant, GB: In case you missed the last nine games of the 2007 season, let me fill you in on a secret. Ryan Grant is good and his production should continue in 2008. The drama of Brett Favre's second attempt at retirement combined with a short holdout from camp will entice owners to avoid Grant in the earlier rounds. Grant averaged 5.1 ypc in 2007, compiling over 900 yards after starting in Week 8. Although there is some controversy as to who will be under center in 2008, look for Ryan Grant to be the man in the backfield for the Packers.

4. Ryan Torain, DEN: Rookie running backs in Denver are about as successful as a lob to Randy Moss in the back of the endzone. With the exception of Maurice Clarett and a few others, rookie running backs in Denver have been anything but rookies. Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, and Clinton Portis all rushed for over 1,100 yards during their rookie campaigns in Denver, while contributing anywhere from seven to fifteen touchdowns each. Keep a close eye on the camp battle between Torain and Young. If Torain gets the nod, he will have an immediate impact on your fantasy team in 2008.

5. Chris Johnson, TEN: Another rookie that will look to impress fantasy owners in 2008 is Chris Johnson. While Lendale White is slated as the starter for the Titans, the team has had a difficult time overlooking the speed and quickness of Johnson. After running a 4.2 second 40-yard dash, he will be a great change of pace in the Titans offense, with a role similar to that of Reggie Bush in New Orleans during the 2006 season. Look to snag Johnson with a late round pick in fantasy drafts this summer.

CREEPERS

1. Ahman Green, HOU: Limited by injuries in 2007, Ahman Green was only able to play in six games, limiting his production to a disappointing 260 yards and two touchdowns. With that in mind, the Texans acquired RB Chris Brown to provide a 1-2 punch in Houston. His limited production in 2007 combined with an injury-plagued career makes Green an unattractive candidate in 2008, despite his encouraging remarks about his performance in the 2008 season. After all, if you were an accountant, would you admit on national television that you can't add or subtract?

2. Fred Taylor, JAC: Fred Taylor has had an amazing career and continued to please his owners with a rejuvenated campaign in 2007. However, a lot of his yardage came off of big plays at the end of last season. The emergence of Maurice Jones-Drew in the backfield should lead to a decrease in production by Fred Taylor. Although there may be some gas left in the tank, the likelihood of Taylor becoming a 1,000 yard/8 TD back in 2008 is very small.

3. LenDale White, TEN: Although he is slated as the starter, LenDale White will find that his greatest competition will come from his own sideline. You are probably asking yourself "how can you pick the rookie to be a sleeper when you pick the starter to be a creeper?" The answer is Vince Young. After only throwing nine touchdown passes last year, defenses will stack the box making it difficult for LenDale White to get the rock rolling. Enter the 4.2 speed of Chris Johnson who will be able to evade defenders. He will be a great change of pace back and should begin to see more and more carries as the year progresses. If you plan on taking LenDale as a sleeper number two running back.....keep your money and do not join a fantasy league. There are plenty of deserving charities that would benefit from your donation aside from your fantasy league.

4. Selvin Young, DEN: Although Selvin Young did show some promising signs in 2007, his failure to reach the end zone more than once the entire season discourages fantasy owners from picking him in 2008. In addition to his failure to find the end zone, the announcement made by coach Shanahan that Young will only be a 15-carry running back in 2008 will also discourage fantasy owners. In his last seven games of 2007, Young was only able to eclipse the 10-carry mark three times. Such a limited amount of opportunity will make it difficult for Selvin Young to produce in 2008. Let some other guy swipe him in the later rounds. If you conveniently ignore all the signs from 2007 and take Young with a middle round pick, be sure to handcuff him with rookie Ryan Torain in a later round.

5. Justin Fargas, OAK: I agree, Justin Fargas had a great season as the number one running back in Oakland after injuries landed LaMont Jordan on the sideline. However, Oakland spent a lot of money on rookie running back Darren McFadden and they like the potential he offers. The departure of LaMont Jordan to New England will help clear out the abundance of running backs this team is considering. However, limit the amount of carries for Fargas due to Darren McFadden and Michael Bush which combined with poor quarterback play will lead to a decline in Fargas' value in 2008.