Monday, August 18, 2008

Sleeper or Creeper: Players At Quarterback Who Will Make A Difference

In my experience with fantasy football, I have never had a successful season when my quarterback posted sub par stats. In 2007, teams lucky enough to grab Tom Brady or Tony Romo with a middle round pick probably walked into the playoffs. The absence of Jessica Simpson also would have landed a lot of owners in the champions seat. In 2008, a few names have the opportunity to make a significant fantasy impact across the league. If you miss out on the big five early on (Brady, Manning, Romo, Brees, and Palmer), look for these names in the later rounds and avoid the others that will have a down year.

Sleepers

Jay Cutler, DEN: The potential for this kid to shine in 2008 is vast. He has what he needs in a great number one receiver, a tight end on the rise, and a running system in Denver that always succeeds. Combine this with two years experience in the NFL and Cutler will be this year's Tony Romo. The three game suspension of Marshall will hurt Cutler's numbers, but Scheffler and Jackson will help fill the void. Look to draft Cutler in the middle-to-late rounds and begin walking into the playoffs just like Tony Romo owners did in 2007. At least you do not have to worry about Jessica Simpson screwing up your fantasy championship.

Matt Leinart, ARI: He has had two years to prove himself and continues to be replaced by a grocery bagger from the local supermarket. Leinart has the weapons in Arizona, now he just needs the time and patience to work with them. Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin will eclipse 1,000 yards this season and with receivers this deadly, it will be hard to pass on Leinart with a late round pick. Draft Warner with a very late round pick as insurance for Leinart. No matter who is throwing the rock, both of them should put up some numbers with such a deadly offense.

Jon Kitna, DET: The downside to Kitna is his age and failure to produce in Detroit as expected. The upside is he has one of the best receiving corps in the NFL, which will be utilized when trailing late in the game. Calvin Johnson will have his best year as an NFL receiver and since he is accompanied by Roy Williams, Kitna should have a great year in Detroit. Draft Kitna with a late round pick in all drafts.

Phillip Rivers, SD: The potential for a breakout season is most prevalent in San Diego. Chris Chambers is a great number one receiver who showed signs of promise during limited action in 2007. Vincent Jackson had a great playoff run, catching 18 passes for 300 yards and two touchdowns in three playoff games. And let's not forget the presence of Antonio Gates in the offense. With so many receiving options and LT in the flat out of the backfield, there is no way defenses will be able to cover so many options. Draft Rivers with a late round pick as a solid backup and once he starts producing, make him your starter in all leagues.


Creepers


Donovan McNabb, PHI: McNabb did last the whole year without suffering a serious injury after going down in the 2006 season. However, he was only able to throw for 19 touchdowns and 3,324 yards in 14 games. The absence of a bona fide number one receiver in Philly makes it difficult for McNabb to reestablish himself as an elite fantasy quarterback. Let another owner draft McNabb early, only to realize the disappointment shortly after the selection. Unless Jackson, Curtis, and Brown can establish a solid passing game, McNabb will not be worth selecting with an early pick. This is a big "unless" so spend a later pick on one of the aforementioned quarterbacks.


Jeff Garcia, TB: I am a big 49ers fans so I hate to admit when one of our own has peaked. But for the sake of all readers, I have to face reality and leave my personal biases to the side. The receivers in Tampa are either old or have disappointed fantasy owners in the past. Tom Brady threw more touchdown passes in three games than Garcia did in 13, not to mention almost double the yards on the season. Do not draft Garcia unless it is an autopilot pick in the last round to serve as your backup.


Tarvaris Jackson, MIN: Knee injury or not, Tarvaris Jackson will not serve as a reliable quarterback in 2008. The acquisition of Bernard Berrian and the presence of Adrian Peterson will help the young quarterback, but nothing will turn him into a reliable starter in 2008. Only draft Jackson if you are desperate for a backup.

Any Baltimore QB: Just like the song, as soon as one QB takes a step forward in the quarterback race, they take two steps back the next day. The receivers in Baltimore are weak and until the receivers and quarterback learn to play together, the air attack will struggle in Baltimore. Cam Cameron will focus on the run, which means even more struggles through the air in the 2008 season.

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