Draft Implications: Play Em Again Rookie Biotch!

In fantasy as in Super Troopers, the Rookie will always have an impact on the squad. Whether he be a bust like Ryan Leaf or an integral part of the offense like Adrian Peterson, selecting a rookie on draft day must be done with care and precision. A pick too early could ruin your year, while a pick too late may force you to miss out on the steal of the draft. The following names are a few you should consider on draft day.

Darren McFadden, OAK: McFadden will have a lot to live up to if owners continue to think that he will produce like Adrian Peterson. In an offense with a weak passing game and a focus on the run, the running backs will get plenty of carries on Sunday. The only question is which running back will get them. Fargas entered the year as the starter but strong performances from Bush and McFadden will convince the Raiders that a running back committee may be the right way to go. If there is an injury to one of the backs, look for the others to improve significantly. Keep an eye on the running back situation and draft McFadden as a great sleeper with a pick in the middle-to-low rounds.

Chris Johnson, TEN: The speed of this kid is something you have to see in order to be convinced that he is the real deal in Tennessee. He provides a great change of speed that the Titans will be able to utilize out of the backfield. LenDale White will remain the starter in Tennessee, but there is a very good chance that Johnson will be able to eclipse 800 yards in his rookie season. Add in a few touchdowns and receptions and this will be one of the best rookie campaigns in 2008.

Matt Forte, CHI: The Bears are putting a lot of faith in Forte to help them re-emerge as a solid running threat in the NFL. The truth is the passing game is a joke, the lack of a deep threat will allow defenses to stack the box, and a low scoring offense in Chicago will force them to throw the ball late in the game, limiting the amount of touches for Forte. The addition of Kevin Jones will only hurt Forte if he is able to recover from an injury in 2007. Draft Forte with a late pick in all drafts and hope that he will be the sleeper that helps your team make it to the big show.

Felix Jones, DAL: Get rid of one Jones and then bring in another. It will be interesting to see how the Cowboys plan on using Jones in the offense this year. Barber became a top eight running back when the announcement trading Julius Jones occurred. Since drafting Felix Jones, owners are now wondering how he will impact the fantasy value of Barber. In my opinion, Barber is still a top-eight running back and to think that a rookie will steal that many carries from a proven back such as Barber is ludicrous. Only draft Jones if you need some insurance for your starting running back Marion Barber.

DeSean Jackson, PHI: Jackson leads all Eagles in receptions with twelve receptions for 122 yards during the preseason. A recent injury that will sideline Curtis indefinitely also adds to the upside of DeSean Jackson. The Eagles will be forced to rely on the rookie more than original anticipated, so plan on drafting Jackson with a late round pick and hope he emerges as McNabb's favorite target.

James Hardy, BUF: Hardy provides the Bill's offense with a tall receiver having the ability to go up and get the ball. Opposite of Evans, Edwards will look for an easy target and it is difficult to make a bad throw when your target is 6-5/212. He will be a great change of pace receiver from Lee Evans out of Wisconsin and should succeed immediately in Buffalo. Snag Hardy with a late round pick in all drafts and let him go up and get the ball for your squad as a reserve until he can prove he deserves otherwise.

Matt Ryan, ATL: Mike Smith announced that he will start Matt Ryan in the next preseason game against Tennessee. This will be a great opportunity for all viewers to see the composure and skill of the rookie quarterback. The lack of offensive weapons in Atlanta will make it difficult for any Atlanta quarterback to become a fantasy starter, but monitoring him in his first preseason start may indicate his outlook for the future. Do not draft Matt Ryan and if he gets the nod as the starter and performs well, he will be waiting for you on the waiver wire with Chris Redmond and Joey Harrington.

Offseason Moves: Player Acquisitions

The most noteworthy acquisition of the 2007 season was Randy Moss to the New England Patriots. While contributing very little to the Oakland Raiders and my fantasy team in 2006, Moss was able to post 98 receptions for 1,493 yards and a record breaking 23 touchdowns in 2007. Owners who were able to sense the impact Moss would have in New England took him in the fifth round or later, leading a lot of teams to the championship. Although no player acquisition in 2008 will have the impact Moss did in 2007, it is important to recognize who went where and the impact it will have on their 2008 fantasy stats.

Quarterback

Brett Favre, NYJ: Father time is back and he is ready to give it a go for one more season. By now, I am a little skeptical about his return. Personally I believe that he loves the drama of faking retirement so much that he just keeps coming back. Regardless of what I believe, the guy can still throw the ball and New York will provide him with a solid line and capable receivers in Cotchery and Coles. Favre will be a low-end # 1, solid # 2 quarterback so keep an eye on him in the preseason and draft him accordingly.

Chad Pennington, MIA: This acquisition will have a very little, if any, impact on the Miami Dolphins. The departure of Chris Chambers and Randy McMichael leaves their receiving corp in a state of disarray. Throw in a season ending injury to their starting running back in 2007 and this offense wouldn't even be potent with Tom Brady running the show. Stay away from Pennington and any other Dolphin's quarterback this season.

Running back

Michael Turner, ATL: I already told you about his breakout performance in preseason week two. But that is only the preseason and to repeat his statistics would be like me retelling the story about how I beat my 12-year old brother in basketball. Atlanta is a great place for Turner for two reasons. He is entering the system with their "franchise" quarterback in Matt Ryan which makes him an excellent keeper candidate. As they develop and learn the offense together, we will start to see the type of reliance seen in Philly between McNabb and Westbrook. Second, the release of Horn and departure of Crumpler weakens the passing game, making it even harder for Ryan to establish himself in the passing game. The result will be a lot of dump off passes and a plethora of running plays called in by head coach Mike Smith.

Julius Jones, SEA: If you haven't heard, Seattle's receivers are more banged up than Britney Spears in 2007. Branch is rehabing due to a torn ACL in January and Engram cracked his shoulder, leaving Burleson to handle the #1 role in Seattle. Add in a rookie tight end and the air game may be a little sluggish to start the season. Seattle is in a weak conference defensively which will allow Jones to adjust to the system and carry the load in Seattle.

LaMont Jordan, NE: Belichick likes him and coming from a man that shows as much emotion as Barbara Walters, that is saying a lot. Belichick liked Sammy Morris and he took a lot of goal line reps from Maroney in 2007 before he was injured for the year. LaMont is a big back who will be used in goal line situations. However, he is worth no more than a reserve spot on your roster since he will get no more than 8-10 carries.

Wide Receivers

Bernard Berrian, MIN: His stats were not that impressive in Chicago, but then again he would have been better off throwing the ball, running after, and then trying to catch it as opposed to receiving the rock from Grossman or Orton. He is out of Chicago but the quarterback play did not improve in his favor. He will have to put up with Jackson and will be used as a deep threat to keep defenses honest, preventing them from stacking the box in preparation for "All Day". Keep an eye on Berrian and draft him as a #3/#4 receiver in all leagues.

Darrell Jackson, DEN: It will be difficult for Darrell the Disappointment to be a bigger bust than he was in San Francisco, but do not doubt an aging, injury-prone receiver. He will be a solid target while Marshall is serving his suspension, but once Marshall is back, expect Marshall and Scheffler to be the focal point of the passing attack in Denver. Jackson is a #4 receiver with sleeper potential as long as his ankle recovers by opening day.

Jerry Porter, JAX: Porter was supposed to shine in Oakland with the departure of Moss and he didn't. Now experts are saying he will shine with Garrard at QB and I am saying he won't. Jacksonville has not had a dominant receiver since Jimmy Smith was in his prime. Reggie Williams, Matt Jones, and others did not have the seasons they were expected to have in Jacksonville. With a hamstring injury contributing to the problems in Jacksonville, expect Porter to join the list of disappointments. Draft him as a #4 receiver and hope he finally has that breakout season.

Tight End

Alge Crumpler, TEN: Crumpler is now in Tennessee with a quarterback similar to Vick, so expect him to have a huge season in Tennessee. Crumpler is a huge sleeper candidate for 2008 so take him with a late round pick and let the other owners take Heap, Shockey, and Miller way to early in the draft.

The above list covers only free agents that have relocated. For a list of rookies that will impact the 2008 season, go to "Play Em Again Rookie Biotch" which will be posted on 08/20/2008.

New Faces, Different Places: Where Have All The Coaches Gone?

Just as important as drafting a player based on offensive strength and team strength is drafting a player based on team personnel. Offensive juggernauts such as Mike Martz and Tom Moore have led their offenses to many successful seasons in the air and on the ground. Team success invariably leads to individual success, meaning a successful fantasy season for your squad. The following is a look at some of the most influential offensive coaches who relocated during the year.

Jim Zorn, WAS, Head Coach: Zorn was a quarterback in the league, served as a quarterback coach for 12 years, and although now the head coach, will continue to focus on quarterbacks in Washington. Although Portis will remain the workhorse, Cooley and Moss will see their reps increase when Zorn is in charge. Paying attention to quarterbacks does not stop after 12 years just because you are on a new team, so look for Washington to go through the air, benefiting Cooley, Moss, and Portis. With an injury prone running back like Clinton Portis, the best way to monitor his workload is to go through the air, which they will do in 2008.

Mike Martz; SF, Offensive Coordinator: Although he was fired in the offseason, his unemployment lasted about as long as Ryan Leaf's tenure in the NFL. Alive and well in San Francisco, Mike Martz will bring the same offensive prowess that he provided in St. Louis and Detroit. Stating that the primary focus would be Frank Gore, Martz was also impressed with the ability of Vernon Davis. Although it will not be difficult to make SF better offensively then they were in 2007, his play calling and offensive schemes should benefit everyone in San Francisco.

Cam Cameron; BAL, Offensive Coordinator: After waking up from his nightmare known as the 2007 Miami Dolphins, Cameron looks to improve the offense in Baltimore with the assistance of head coach John Harbaugh. Under Cameron, Ronnie Brown enjoyed a lot of success before hurting his knee as the primary back in Miami. Cameron will have a similar effect in Baltimore and the combination of poor quarterback play will increase the productivity of McGahee. Assuming the knee injury is improved, look for McGahee or Rice to enjoy plenty of carries in 2008.

Dan Henning; MIA, Offensive Coordinator: Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will both benefit from Dan Henning in Miami. A conservative play caller, Henning will look to control the game through a strong ground attack, which is consistent with tools he has in Miami. Depending on how Ronnie Brown recovers, Miami should have a solid running game with the addition of rookie Jake Long and free agent Justin Smiley. The quarterback situation is a mess so let the new coach develop the one strong point in Miami....the running game. Look for Henning to improve the offense that went 1-15 in 2007 and take Brown and Williams if you are able to snag the two together.