Sleeper or Creeper: Players At Quarterback Who Will Make A Difference

In my experience with fantasy football, I have never had a successful season when my quarterback posted sub par stats. In 2007, teams lucky enough to grab Tom Brady or Tony Romo with a middle round pick probably walked into the playoffs. The absence of Jessica Simpson also would have landed a lot of owners in the champions seat. In 2008, a few names have the opportunity to make a significant fantasy impact across the league. If you miss out on the big five early on (Brady, Manning, Romo, Brees, and Palmer), look for these names in the later rounds and avoid the others that will have a down year.

Sleepers

Jay Cutler, DEN: The potential for this kid to shine in 2008 is vast. He has what he needs in a great number one receiver, a tight end on the rise, and a running system in Denver that always succeeds. Combine this with two years experience in the NFL and Cutler will be this year's Tony Romo. The three game suspension of Marshall will hurt Cutler's numbers, but Scheffler and Jackson will help fill the void. Look to draft Cutler in the middle-to-late rounds and begin walking into the playoffs just like Tony Romo owners did in 2007. At least you do not have to worry about Jessica Simpson screwing up your fantasy championship.

Matt Leinart, ARI: He has had two years to prove himself and continues to be replaced by a grocery bagger from the local supermarket. Leinart has the weapons in Arizona, now he just needs the time and patience to work with them. Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin will eclipse 1,000 yards this season and with receivers this deadly, it will be hard to pass on Leinart with a late round pick. Draft Warner with a very late round pick as insurance for Leinart. No matter who is throwing the rock, both of them should put up some numbers with such a deadly offense.

Jon Kitna, DET: The downside to Kitna is his age and failure to produce in Detroit as expected. The upside is he has one of the best receiving corps in the NFL, which will be utilized when trailing late in the game. Calvin Johnson will have his best year as an NFL receiver and since he is accompanied by Roy Williams, Kitna should have a great year in Detroit. Draft Kitna with a late round pick in all drafts.

Phillip Rivers, SD: The potential for a breakout season is most prevalent in San Diego. Chris Chambers is a great number one receiver who showed signs of promise during limited action in 2007. Vincent Jackson had a great playoff run, catching 18 passes for 300 yards and two touchdowns in three playoff games. And let's not forget the presence of Antonio Gates in the offense. With so many receiving options and LT in the flat out of the backfield, there is no way defenses will be able to cover so many options. Draft Rivers with a late round pick as a solid backup and once he starts producing, make him your starter in all leagues.

Creepers

Donovan McNabb, PHI: McNabb did last the whole year without suffering a serious injury after going down in the 2006 season. However, he was only able to throw for 19 touchdowns and 3,324 yards in 14 games. The absence of a bona fide number one receiver in Philly makes it difficult for McNabb to reestablish himself as an elite fantasy quarterback. Let another owner draft McNabb early, only to realize the disappointment shortly after the selection. Unless Jackson, Curtis, and Brown can establish a solid passing game, McNabb will not be worth selecting with an early pick. This is a big "unless" so spend a later pick on one of the aforementioned quarterbacks.

Jeff Garcia, TB: I am a big 49ers fans so I hate to admit when one of our own has peaked. But for the sake of all readers, I have to face reality and leave my personal biases to the side. The receivers in Tampa are either old or have disappointed fantasy owners in the past. Tom Brady threw more touchdown passes in three games than Garcia did in 13, not to mention almost double the yards on the season. Do not draft Garcia unless it is an autopilot pick in the last round to serve as your backup.

Tarvaris Jackson, MIN: Knee injury or not, Tarvaris Jackson will not serve as a reliable quarterback in 2008. The acquisition of Bernard Berrian and the presence of Adrian Peterson will help the young quarterback, but nothing will turn him into a reliable starter in 2008. Only draft Jackson if you are desperate for a backup.

Any Baltimore QB: Just like the song, as soon as one QB takes a step forward in the quarterback race, they take two steps back the next day. The receivers in Baltimore are weak and until the receivers and quarterback learn to play together, the air attack will struggle in Baltimore. Cam Cameron will focus on the run, which means even more struggles through the air in the 2008 season.

Sleeper or Creeper: Players At Tight End Who Will Make A Difference

The position of tight end has evolved from primarily a blocking position to an additional wide receiver. Most recently, there has been such a focus on using the tight end as a passing option that NFL teams have drafted college basketball players. Not only did they draft college basketball players, but one such player, Antonio Gates, has been among the leagues best tight ends since 2004. The emergence of reliable tight ends in the league also created the need for a reliable tight end on your fantasy team. After the big five are gone (Witten, Gates, Winslow, Cooley, and Gonzalez), waiting till the late rounds to draft a tight end may still leave you some viable options.

Sleepers

1. Greg Olsen, CHI: The departure of Bernard Berrian to Minnesota and Muhsin Muhammad to Carolina combined with a decline in production from Desmond Clark in 2007 makes Greg Olsen a great sleeper candidate in 2008. Olsen started showing signs of promise as a rookie in 2007, grabbing 39 passes for 391 yards and two touchdowns. Although the Bears have tailored their offense to include a two tight end set, look for Olsen to benefit the most from this offensive scheme. With quarterback play as poor as it is in Chicago, Olsen should benefit from quick passes with the athleticism to turn them into big plays. Draft Olsen with a middle to late round pick in all leagues.

2. Alge Crumpler, TEN: The presence of a speedy quarterback in Atlanta allowed Crumpler to shine in 2005 and 2006. Combining for 1,650 yards and 13 touchdowns in those two seasons, the presence of a mobile Vince Young in Tennessee should have the same impact on his fantasy numbers this season. Look for the two to mesh together in 2008 and plan on spending a late pick on Crumpler in all drafts this summer.

3. Vernon Davis, SF: I know what you are thinking... "Hasn't he been predicted to be a sleeper in the last two seasons, only to be a bust?" The answer is yes, but 2008 will be a little different due to Mike Martz. Nothing is pretty in San Francisco. The quarterback race is now between three players, one of which sounds better as the title of an Irish bar as opposed to a starting quarterback, their wide receivers are more washed up than Madonna, and they scored over 21 points only one time in 2007! However, Mike Martz has been an offensive genius in both Detroit and St. Louis and continues to be impressed by Vernon Davis. Look for Davis to get more opportunities in 2008 and snag him with a middle round pick in all leagues.

4. Tony Scheffler, DEN: A foot injury in the offseason will deter a lot of fantasy owners from taking Scheffler as their starting tight end in the middle rounds. Do not be the owner to make this same mistake. In his last seven games of the 2007 season, Scheffler had 29 receptions for 360 yards and 3 touchdowns. Compare his numbers with the league leading tight end in the last seven games and the result is a difference of 11 fantasy points. I am not trying to compare Scheffler to Witten, but his numbers should not be ignored going into 2008. Factor in a suspension for the leading receiver in Denver and Scheffler's stock goes up in 2008.

5. John Carlson, SEA: The recent injury to Bobby Engram has increased the fantasy value of John Carlson, the rookie tight end out of Notre Dame. In his first preseason action, he was able to bring in two passes for 21 yards. With Branch out for most of the season and Engram expected to miss eight weeks, Carlson could be a nice option when teams start to double Burleson, leaving the big man with a few more opportunities to make big plays.

Creepers

1. Desmond Clark, CHI: Although Ron Turner has stated he intends to use a two tight end set, the emergence of Greg Olsen lowers the value of Desmond Clark in Chicago. Despite an impressive outing in 2006, Clark is now 31 years old and saw a decrease in his production in 2007. Although you may still want to draft him in the event of an injury to Olsen, Clark is no better than a #2 TE, not worthy of a pick in most leagues.

2. Donald Lee, GB: Donald Lee had an impressive year with the cheeseheads in 2007. The downside is that in the last seven games, Lee only averaged two receptions a game, totaling 158 yards. Also, Lee will have to adjust to a new quarterback in Aaron Rodgers. Combine this with a solid receiving core in Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and James Jones and Lee may not be much of a factor in 2008. Draft Lee with a late round pick as a reserve and monitor how he adjusts to Aaron Rodgers.

3. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN: The inconsistency of Jackson and a number of dropped touchdown passes in 2007 makes Shiancoe a risky pick in 2008. Although it appears the dropped passes are behind him, Jackson is not. Do not draft Shiancoe and if his play improves, he will be on the waiver wire to pick up during the season.

4. David Martin, MIA: The acquisition of Anthony Fasano from Dallas has had a considerable impact on the fantasy value of any TE in Miami. Martin has been taking reps with the second team, indicating that Fasano will likely be the starting TE on a team that has no proven wide receivers. While this may help the value of Fasano, Martin should no longer be drafted in any league.

Sleeper or Creeper: Players At Running Back Who Will Make A Difference

Chances are that in 2007, a fantasy team composed of Tom Brady, Adrian Peterson, Greg Jennings, Braylon Edwards, and Jason Witten led many owners to the championship. In the midst of all their glory, many owners forget that Greg Jennings was merely a second-year wide receiver out of Western Michigan looking to build on a mediocre rookie year. To the surprise of many, Greg Jennings finished the year tied for fourth among all wide receivers with 12 touchdown receptions, a number surpassed only by Randy Moss, Braylon Edwards, and Terrell Owens.

In sleeper or creeper, I will look at every position and determine the ideal candidates for a "sleeper" season and forewarn you about the players I feel will "creep" through the season. Like it or not, in the end it is your team so you make the call.

SLEEPERS

1. Thomas Jones, NYJ: The acquisition of LG Alan Faneca and FB Tony Richardson gives the New York Jets something to be optimistic about. Compiling 1,119 rushing yards and 217 receiving yards in 2007 behind a line that could make LT look average, Thomas Jones will be better in 2008. Following Richardson into the pile should result in an increase in touchdowns, fixing a problem he was all too familiar with in 2007.

2. Laurence Maroney, NE: What do you expect when the man under center is slinging an average of three touchdowns per game? I will tell you what to expect..... a decline in production from that player in the subsequent year. We saw the same thing with Peyton Manning the year after he broke the record. He went from throwing 49 touchdowns in 2004 to 28 touchdowns in 2005. Do not construe this as an attack on Tom Brady, but instead a recognition of the amount of respect defensive coordinators will give him in 2008. They will be unable to stack the box and constantly on their toes, providing large gaps in the defense which will allow Maroney to head for the promiseland. Throw in the weakest schedule for any team in the NFL during the 2008 season and Maroney owners will not feel the same remorse for drafting him in 2008 as they did in 2007.

3. Ryan Grant, GB: In case you missed the last nine games of the 2007 season, let me fill you in on a secret. Ryan Grant is good and his production should continue in 2008. The drama of Brett Favre's second attempt at retirement combined with a short holdout from camp will entice owners to avoid Grant in the earlier rounds. Grant averaged 5.1 ypc in 2007, compiling over 900 yards after starting in Week 8. Although there is some controversy as to who will be under center in 2008, look for Ryan Grant to be the man in the backfield for the Packers.

4. Ryan Torain, DEN: Rookie running backs in Denver are about as successful as a lob to Randy Moss in the back of the endzone. With the exception of Maurice Clarett and a few others, rookie running backs in Denver have been anything but rookies. Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, and Clinton Portis all rushed for over 1,100 yards during their rookie campaigns in Denver, while contributing anywhere from seven to fifteen touchdowns each. Keep a close eye on the camp battle between Torain and Young. If Torain gets the nod, he will have an immediate impact on your fantasy team in 2008.

5. Chris Johnson, TEN: Another rookie that will look to impress fantasy owners in 2008 is Chris Johnson. While Lendale White is slated as the starter for the Titans, the team has had a difficult time overlooking the speed and quickness of Johnson. After running a 4.2 second 40-yard dash, he will be a great change of pace in the Titans offense, with a role similar to that of Reggie Bush in New Orleans during the 2006 season. Look to snag Johnson with a late round pick in fantasy drafts this summer.

CREEPERS

1. Ahman Green, HOU: Limited by injuries in 2007, Ahman Green was only able to play in six games, limiting his production to a disappointing 260 yards and two touchdowns. With that in mind, the Texans acquired RB Chris Brown to provide a 1-2 punch in Houston. His limited production in 2007 combined with an injury-plagued career makes Green an unattractive candidate in 2008, despite his encouraging remarks about his performance in the 2008 season. After all, if you were an accountant, would you admit on national television that you can't add or subtract?

2. Fred Taylor, JAC: Fred Taylor has had an amazing career and continued to please his owners with a rejuvenated campaign in 2007. However, a lot of his yardage came off of big plays at the end of last season. The emergence of Maurice Jones-Drew in the backfield should lead to a decrease in production by Fred Taylor. Although there may be some gas left in the tank, the likelihood of Taylor becoming a 1,000 yard/8 TD back in 2008 is very small.

3. LenDale White, TEN: Although he is slated as the starter, LenDale White will find that his greatest competition will come from his own sideline. You are probably asking yourself "how can you pick the rookie to be a sleeper when you pick the starter to be a creeper?" The answer is Vince Young. After only throwing nine touchdown passes last year, defenses will stack the box making it difficult for LenDale White to get the rock rolling. Enter the 4.2 speed of Chris Johnson who will be able to evade defenders. He will be a great change of pace back and should begin to see more and more carries as the year progresses. If you plan on taking LenDale as a sleeper number two running back.....keep your money and do not join a fantasy league. There are plenty of deserving charities that would benefit from your donation aside from your fantasy league.

4. Selvin Young, DEN: Although Selvin Young did show some promising signs in 2007, his failure to reach the end zone more than once the entire season discourages fantasy owners from picking him in 2008. In addition to his failure to find the end zone, the announcement made by coach Shanahan that Young will only be a 15-carry running back in 2008 will also discourage fantasy owners. In his last seven games of 2007, Young was only able to eclipse the 10-carry mark three times. Such a limited amount of opportunity will make it difficult for Selvin Young to produce in 2008. Let some other guy swipe him in the later rounds. If you conveniently ignore all the signs from 2007 and take Young with a middle round pick, be sure to handcuff him with rookie Ryan Torain in a later round.

5. Justin Fargas, OAK: I agree, Justin Fargas had a great season as the number one running back in Oakland after injuries landed LaMont Jordan on the sideline. However, Oakland spent a lot of money on rookie running back Darren McFadden and they like the potential he offers. The departure of LaMont Jordan to New England will help clear out the abundance of running backs this team is considering. However, limit the amount of carries for Fargas due to Darren McFadden and Michael Bush which combined with poor quarterback play will lead to a decline in Fargas' value in 2008.